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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still